The 2015 Russian military intervention in Syria was a pivotal moment for Moscow’s Middle East policy. As we discussed earlier this year, Russia has... Israel: Without a Significant Reset, Democracy Will Continue to Suffer. What are the elements of Russian interests in the Middle East beyond Syria? But Russia had in fact been edging its way back into the region since at least 2007, emphasising political and economic relations over security relationships. The Russian Federation has already won the war in Syria and is, therefore, the hegemonic power throughout the Middle East. While Russia does have a long-term strategy in the Middle East, it is freighted with significant restraints and constraints. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/16/the-middle-east-needs-a-steady-boyfriend Russia has little to offer to the region’s Arab societies, which need security, stability, and opportunities for political and economic modernization. Russia may not have a clear ends-driven regional strategy; it constantly seeks to improve its short-term economic, military, and political advantages while reducing the short-term advantages of prospective adversaries. Moscow and Ankara are at the brink of a major conflict, given Erdoğan’s attempts to rake up Turkic sentiment in regions like Central Asia and Azerbaijan to eat into Moscow’s former Soviet space. Russia in the Middle East . Russia in the Middle East: Part Five. More importantly, Russia wants to shift the attention of the leading Arab power- the UAE towards Turkish belligerence. iTunes. Russia’s Vladimir Putin, set to be re-elected for yet another presidential term on Sunday, has spent much of his latest six-year mandate trying to increase Moscow’s influence in the Middle East. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. The Russian Foreign Ministry has stated, “Russia and the UAE are consistent supporters of the settlement of conflicts and crises in this strategically important region of the world using political methods, through an inclusive dialogue that takes into account legitimate interests and concerns of all parties involved. Moscow's approach in the Middle East may appear arbitrary as it lacks a clear ends-driven approach, focuses on the short-term, and seems, at least superficially, to be ruthlessly opportunistic and transactional. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria, which caught many by surprise, seemingly heralded Moscow’s triumphant return to the Middle East. Lack of Strategy: Twenty years after the end of the Cold War, Russia has not developed a coherent foreign policy towards the Middle East, said Carnegie’s Marwan Muasher. Approach to the World, How Law Enforcement Can Mitigate Bias in Machine Learning Decision Aids, Helping Mothers Return to Work Is a Gender Equality Issue, Who Gets Care When Hospitals Are Overwhelmed? The greatest limitation of Russia's Middle East strategy is that it is not Russia, but the Middle Eastern states themselves that determine the depth of their relations with Moscow. September 29, 2020. In the Middle East, Russian propaganda fuels conspiracy thinking, feeding on the region's existing proclivities. The title of this seminar/workshop is “Russia’s Strategy in the Middle East.” And to me that suggest two things: one, that there is one, a strategy for the Middle East, and that, two, that other countries also have other strategies in the Middle East. Russia’s Middle East Power Play By Vance Serchuk. This Perspective seeks to identify the important elements of Russian interests in the Middle East beyond Syria, to define the nature of Russian engagement in the region, and to describe the contours of a Russian strategy in the Middle East. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. View our. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (R) meets with Khalifa Haftar eastern Libya-based military commander at the Russian Foreign Ministry's Reception House in Moscow, Russia … Largely absent from the Middle East for the better part of the previous two decades, Russia intervened to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime and reasserted itself as a major player in the region’s power politics. It is easier to grasp Russian strategy by contrasting it with Chinese strategy. All the alliances that Trump stitched so painstakingly begin crumbling as Biden era begins. Russia is intensifying its political and military involvement in Libya as part of a new Middle East strategy, which has several objectives. Russia’s military and security strategy in the Middle East is still evolving, and it feels like Russia is becoming an increasingly sophisticated player … While Russia does have a long-term strategy in the Middle East, it is freighted with significant restraints and constraints. TASS, the largest Russian news agency, has reported that UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan would hold talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in Moscow on Monday.This is a part of the larger Russian strategy to isolate Turkey in the Middle East by pitting all stakeholders like Iran, France, the UAE, Cyprus and the US against Ankara. Russia has goals, but to Western observers they appear to be either transactional or, in the longer term, generalizable to the point that they constitute broad precepts rather than global, regional, or state-specific strategies. This widespread narrative originated, in particular, in the Syrian crisis and the Russian military intervention in the country. Diplomatic subtlety and astute foreign policy manoeuvres are rarely attributed to the Kremlin. Rather than always being on the defensive, the United States should work harder at creating first impressions. Saudi Arabia has given Russian President Vladimir Putin the red-carpet treatment. She said that when Russia started intervening in Syria, it was like a shock and awe campaign. Simply stated, there is no comparison. The involvement in Libya is an extension of the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) policy, as presented in a strategy paper on Russian foreign policy in the autumn of 2016. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. The final component of Russian policy towards the Middle East, as emphasized by Russian workshop participants and Rus-sian literature, is support for existing state structures and govern-ments against both external intervention and internal insurrection. “Russia has managed to create the perception in the Middle East that it is more powerful, more capable and more relevant than the United States,” he said. Little do they know that it can lead to a mutiny. Today, France and the US are at loggerheads with an unworthy NATO member- Turkey. Funding for this venture was provided by philanthropic contributions from RAND supporters and income from operations. With the Russian intervention in Syria, Russia is militarily back in the Middle East for the first time since the Cold War. Russia's strategy in Syria shows how to win a Middle East war Kamal Alam Published date: 11 July 2018 08:20 UTC | Last update: 2 years 6 months ago The decision to increase Russia’s presence in the Middle East was also determined by economic drivers. While the literature on Russia in the Middle East is extensive, recent analysis has understandably focused on Syria, giving less attention to Moscow's relations with other countries in the region. by. Russia's Middle East strategy appears to be reaping dividends, but it is not without significant challenges and risks. This widespread narrative originated, in particular, in the Syrian crisis and the Russian military intervention in the country. About Vance Serchuk September 12, 2019 10:32 AM ... the growing influence of the Kremlin as a strategic force across the greater Middle East… Clear Policies Are Often Lacking, Strategies for Pushing North Korea Toward Denuclearization, Getting to Know Military Caregivers and Their Needs, Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change, Improving Psychological Wellbeing and Work Outcomes in the UK. Hence Russia interprets its Middle East strategy as autonomous from the Sunni-Shite clash and absolutely non-ideological – and this is exactly the Westerners’ mistake – while the Middle East is obviously central to Russian security, but equally irrelevant to the security of NATO which, however, has de facto lost Turkey. The Limits of Russian Strategy in the Middle East by Ben Connable and Becca Wasser Becca Wasser is a policy analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation, where her primary research areas include wargaming, international security, and US defence and foreign policy in the Middle East. From sidelines to centre stage . Description. Communications Officer Kadri Liik @KadriLiik on Twitter. So, Russia’s action plan is to simmer down tensions between the UAE and Iran and pit them against an isolated Turkey instead. When Russia’s resources and opportunities are scarce and engagements with Middle Eastern states decrease, influence will decrease accordingly. As of late 2016, this lack of focus on Russian activity in the broader Middle East had left the important question of Moscow's regional strategy and longer-term intent all but unaddressed. The Middle East states have the greatest power and agency to determine the viability of any Russian strategy. The Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS.edu) is the largest public policy Ph.D. program in the nation and the only program based at an independent public policy research organization—the RAND Corporation. Within the EU also, Moscow has been able to drum up sentiment against Turkish belligerence in the Eastern Mediterranean. Russia is making a concerted effort to reclaim its role as the arms supplier of choice for Arab governments. Recurring confrontations with the West are one of the main factors compelling Russia to intensify its activities in the Middle East. This widespread narrative originated, in particular, in the Syrian crisis and the Russian military intervention in the country. Jon Alterman: If you find yourself with a layover at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo International Airport and have some time to spare, take some time to watch the news.Large flatscreen TVs are mounted all over the terminals, proudly playing news in different languages—Arabic, French, English, and Spanish. When it comes to Russia or its President, Vladimir Putin, the world interprets Russian firepower as a sheer military muscle, or at best, manipulative cyber warfare. Interestingly, Moscow has also managed to drive a deep wedge between the UAE’s arch-foe Iran and Turkey. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2018/05/01/russias-strategy-in-the-middle-east The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. Therefore, Russia is trying to drive regional sentiment against Turkey. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria, which caught many by surprise, seemingly heralded Moscow’s triumphant return to the Middle East. About Vance Serchuk September 12, 2019 10:32 AM. The first section draws on Russian doctrine and the key findings from earlier RAND research, Russian Strategy in the Middle East, to explain the contours of Russia’s regional strategy and the activities that make up its approach.6The second section identifies the limits of Russia’s approach, including the inherent challenges stemming from Russia’s own political and economic systems, the limitations cre- … Your email address will not be published. Firstly, Russian interests in these two conflict zones themselves militate directly against Turkish interference. Russia's multifaceted diplomatic relations and recent interventionist trend are likely to be superseded by longer-term economic, energy, and arms deals. Russia's strategic objectives in the Middle East and North Africa : hearing before the Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, One Hundred Fifteenth Congress, first session, June 15, 2017 What is the nature of Russian engagement in the region? This report is part of the RAND Corporation perspective series. Cyprus, being a member of the European Union, can do Russia’s bidding within the Brussels-based body. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Historically, Russia’s main contacts in the Middle East used to be Turkey and Iran. Key Words: Middle East; Russian Energy Strategy; US and the Middle East Energy is the blood of the modern industrial society and a vital factor which has the impact on the world economy and national security. During the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, French President Emmanuel Macron helped in activating the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, which is led jointly by the US, France and Russia. Now, there is a reason why Moscow is bringing up issues like Syria and Libya. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. September 8, 2020. With change sweeping across the region, Russia will be unable to formulate a meaningful, lasting strategy in the foreseeable future, he added. Lack of Strategy: Twenty years after the end of the Cold War, Russia has not developed a coherent foreign policy towards the Middle East, said Carnegie’s Marwan Muasher. 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Russia’s inability to finance a sustained and meaningful presence in the Middle East is a handicap equally stressed upon by former Kremlin adviser Alexander Nekrassov. Share on Facebook; Share on Twitter; Share on … Russia’s strategy in the Middle East and its implications for the region. Tagged #russia #syria #us #mena. Russia, trying to restore its great power status, accrues influence in the Middle East. October 5, 2020. Russia's Strategy in the Middle East Russia's Strategy in the Middle East . Russian strategy in Syria and the Middle East is clearly marked by shaping regional security and politics thru time-tested means of forward deployed military forces on land and sea, economic and security assistance, and bi-lateral training exercises taking place in both regional states and Russia itself. Russia promotes its ability to interact with many state and nonstate actors in the Middle East; most of Moscow's relationships are best characterized as transactional and are bounded by "insurmountable obstacles.". 02 March 2016: Russia’s strategy in the Middle East and its implications for the region by ECFR Events. News Clip: This week: a battle for the hearts of OPEC.Who will capitulate first: Putin or MBS, as a price war decimates the markets. Russia's Strategy in the Middle East Russia's Strategy in the Middle East . Drawing upon decades of experience, RAND provides research services, systematic analysis, and innovative thinking to a global clientele that includes government agencies, foundations, and private-sector firms. Conclusion: Russia in the Middle East – from surge to quagmire? Russia's Strategy in the Middle East Russia's Strategy in the Middle East . Your email address will not be published. Absent deeper commitments, Russia is beholden to other actors, dynamics and events to create windows of opportunity. And I just want to Jon Alterman: In March of 2020, as the much of the world was shutting down in the face of Covid-19, a price war between Russia and OPEC was heating up. And Putin has been more than happy to play up the dissensions that have emerged between Ankara and Tehran. In 2018, China announced billions in loans for the region, but only $100 million in assistance. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE236.html. Russian-Turkish partnership in their common neighborhood looked a possibility. There’s an intense debate raging within the Alternative and Independent media over whether Russia’s contemporary Mideast strategy amounts to “balancing” or “betraying” the Resistance given the Eurasian Great Power’s extremely close military cooperation with “Israel” in Syria. Ilan Berman. The region occupies a special role in Russia’s strategy for strengthening its producers’ presence in the international oil and gas markets. Sladden, James, Becca Wasser, Ben Connable, and Sarah Grand-Clement, Russian Strategy in the Middle East. Share. This is a part of the larger Russian strategy to isolate Turkey in the Middle East by pitting all stakeholders like Iran, France, the UAE, Cyprus and the US against Ankara. Middle East states use Russia as an alternative and a signal to the West. High-level visits and arms sales will not achieve those ends. Of course, Russia would be the biggest gainer if the UAE and Iran focus their energies on reining in Turkey, rather than fighting each other. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School, by James Sladden, Becca Wasser, Ben Connable, Sarah Grand-Clement. Russia’s central relationships in the Middle East are with three non-Arab states—Iran, Turkey, and Israel—all of which are stable by comparison with their Arab neighbors. Russia is taking advantage of the power vacuum created by America’s desire to disengage from the Middle East. But Russia’s Middle East strategy holds clear limitations and has real practical drawbacks. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria, which caught many by surprise, seemingly heralded Moscow’s triumphant return to the Middle East. Russia in the Middle East: Part Two. But Russia had in fact been edging its way back into the region since at least 2007, emphasising political and economic relations over security relationships. By stitching consensus on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with France and the US, Putin was able to divide the NATO. Russia is on a roll in the Middle East. Over the last few years, the myth of a Russian “return” to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has captured increasing attention from policy-makers all over the area and beyond, as well as the academic community. India’s top investigative agency CBI begins probing Cambridge Analytica, Facebook set to be nailed, China may get aggressive on the Indian border again and is set to lose more heads this time, A fuming Netanyahu and an angry MBS – Why the USA will lose both Saudi and Israel together, Biden’s reversal of Trump’s Israel policy is a disaster in making and can turn Middle East into a searing inferno, Israelis are now racing sports cars in Saudi Arabia. Russia's strategy could limit US influence in Europe and Turkey, which perhaps explains the change in Washington's tone in Libya, and the effort to deploy troops in Tunisia. Russia’s Waning Influence. Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC and a member of the Associated Faculty at Missouri State University’s Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. All RAND perspectives undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Moscow is bringing together friends and foes to a common objective- combating Erdoğan’s belligerent Turkey. Jon Alterman: Natasha Hall is now my colleague at CSIS, but in 2015 she was interviewing Syrian refugees in the field, first for the U.S. government and then for a U.S.-based non-governmental organization. Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. In the quarter century after the end of the Cold War, Russia and Turkey made a spectacular transition from age-old adversity to mutual respect and understanding, despite the many differences. Tweet Share LinkedIn Print Listen to this episode. “Both the unrest in Syria and the Arab Spring presented Russia with the opportunity to increase its engagement in the region and were accompanied by a rapid uptick in Russian economic and political activities across the region,” explains Becca Wasser for RAND. The research was conducted by the Center for Middle East Public Policy. SUMMARY . Russia’s military intervention in Syria has the potential to shift the long-term geostrategic outlook for the Middle East. The Freakish Fusion Of Anti-Zionism and Russophilia Please enter your username or email address to reset your password. In 2011, it looked as if the Arab Spring uprisings would deal a further blow to Russia's declining influence in the Middle East, by toppling Syrian President -Assad, one of Bashar alMoscow's few remaining allies in the region. 109 Nicu Popescu and Stanislav Secrieru Annex Abbreviations 117 Notes on the contributors 119 11 9 10 8 . Moscow’s approach in the Middle East may appear arbitrary as it lacks a clear ends-driven approach, focuses on the short-term, and seems, at least superficially, to be ruthlessly opportunistic and transactional. This perception is at least partly accurate. Nowadays, oil and natural gas are the most important strategic resources in the international energy mix. To some in the United States, Russia may look like a declining power. The involvement in Libya is an extension of the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) policy, as presented in a strategy paper on Russian foreign policy in the autumn of 2016. It has not overpromised and is pursuing an active diplomatic strategy, which has cost Russia very little in blood or treasure. Tactical and more targeted contacts with the region have also been determined by President Vladimir Putin’s diplomatic strategy, his perception of the Arab Spring and the domestic political situation in Russia. Russia is likely to remain an important actor in the Middle East for the foreseeable future. Russia has therefore succeeded in cornering Turkey on every front. 25 Oct 2018 | Connor Dilleen Much has been written about Russia’s ambitions in Syria and the Middle East, and there are numerous elements to Moscow’s strategy in the region. How justified are these expectations? When Russia intervened in the Middle East, Syria found itself in a Hobbesian state of nature with thousands of groups fighting each other and … President Vladimir Putin has made clear his desire to restore Russia to great-power status and … Subscribe to the weekly Policy Currents newsletter to receive updates on the issues that matter most. It states that Moscow will continue to contribute to stability in the region and focus on the "political and diplomatic resolution of conflicts." Russia’s Waning Influence. The world that Trump gave us, but Biden can snatch from us, China may have given Turkey its vaccines in exchange of Uyghur Muslims to work at its sweatshops, ‘Honour your commitments,’ Thousands of illegal immigrants set out to invade the US after Biden promises citizenship to 11 million, Twitter’s alternative Parler was growing fast. Even when it comes to the democratic world, represented by the EU and NATO, Putin has managed to outdo Turkey. This Perspective seeks to identify the important elements of Russian interests in the Middle East beyond Syria, to define the nature of Russian engagement in the region, and to describe the contours of a Russian strategy in the Middle East. Russia is seemingly resurgent in the Middle East, using a short-term focused, transactional approach to develop diplomatic and economic relationships across the region. Senior Policy Fellow Video 8 March 2016. Official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova disclosed that the Ministers of the two countries intend to discuss the developing situation in the Middle East and North Africa. Russia’s new “grand strategy” in the Middle East. Russian Strategy in the Middle East. Does the fact that Russia outplayed the United States on Syria suffice as evidence of Moscow’s “grand strategy” for the broader region? Largely absent from the Middle East for the better part of the previous two decades, Russia intervened to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime and reasserted itself as a … The Kremlin has been careful not to overcommit. 5 Executive Summary Russia’s political, diplomatic, military and economic footprint in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has expanded visibly over the last decade. Russia has goals, but to Western observers they appear to be either transactional or, in the longer term, generalizable to the point that they constitute broad precepts rather than global, regional, or state-specific strategies. The authors contend that while Russia may not have a clear ends-driven regional strategy, its actions suggest it is applying a generalized, functional strategy: It constantly seeks to improve its short-term economic, military, and political advantages while reducing the short-term advantages of prospective adversaries. Sunday, September 10, 2017 at … This project is a RAND Venture. The 2015 Russian military intervention in Syria was a pivotal moment for Moscow’s Middle East policy. It was proposed to exchange views on the situation in Syria, Libya and Yemen.”. With change sweeping across the region, Russia will be unable to formulate a meaningful, lasting strategy in the foreseeable future, he added. What is Russia's strategy in the Middle East? This is a part of the larger Russian strategy to isolate Turkey in the Middle East by pitting all stakeholders like Iran, France, the UAE, Cyprus and the US against Ankara. Over that same period, Russia has provided less than $100 million in humanitarian aid to the Middle East. Before doing anything, policymakers must recognize reality: The Russians are not going away, they have a strategy to weaken the West, and it starts in the Middle East. But Putin might have just played a sharp diplomatic move on Ankara, by isolating Erdoğan’s Turkey in all conflict areas including the Eastern Mediterranean, Libya, South Caucasus and Syria. Required fields are marked *. Change, as one Russian workshop … Russia’s strategy in the Middle East is to stay closer to all other players in the region than they are to one another. Just as Russia seeks to engage in the Middle East for its own benefit, these states also seek to use Russia to their advantage. Despite tensions at the beginning of the Syrian conflicts, Russia has maintained excellent relations with Turkey, the Second Armed Force of NATO and the strategic key to the link between the Middle East and the Mediterranean. TASS, the largest Russian news agency, has reported that UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan would hold talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in Moscow on Monday. Cyprus, for instance, coordinates with Moscow to pressurise a belligerent Ankara. Russia, however, is pursuing this strategy not because it wants to be a major leader in the Middle East, but because it wants to accumulate as much influence as possible. Sladden, James, Becca Wasser, Ben Connable, and Sarah Grand-Clement, Environmental and Natural Resource Management, Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center, Rethinking the U.S. Russia’s strategy in the Middle East is to stay closer to all other players in the region than they are to one another. Russia’s Middle East Strategy Egypt: Increased Dealmaking Will Likely Harm the United States and Allies. The title of this seminar/workshop is “Russia’s Strategy in the Middle East.” And to me that suggest two things: one, that there is one, a strategy for the Middle East, and that, two, that other countries also have other strategies in the Middle East. Executive Summary. Turkey and Israel must now accept the presence of Russian troops on their borders. Privacy Policy Agreement * I agree to the Terms of use and Privacy Policy. Russia in the Middle East: Part Six. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria, which caught many by surprise, seemingly heralded Moscow’s triumphant return to the Middle East. Soundcloud. RAND perspectives present informed perspective on a timely topic that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. Podcasts Home; ECFR's World in 30 Minutes; ECFR Clips; Event Recordings; Subscribe to Podcasts; Subscribe to our podcasts. Russian airpower saved the Assad regime from certain defeat. Over the last few years, the myth of a Russian “return” to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has captured increasing attention from policy-makers all over the area and beyond, as well as the academic community. 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